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Atlantis II vs JäPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Atlantis II
Atlantis II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
JäPS II
JäPS II
4/11/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 1Pallomylly-halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlantis II57%
×Draw20%
JäPS II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantis II
2.25
JäPS II
1.35

Atlantis II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atlantis II
1.50
JäPS II
1.00

allows per match

Atlantis II
1.70
JäPS II
3.00

finishing

Atlantis II+0.00on par
JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis II ↓

JäPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Atlantis II or draw
78%
Atlantis II or JäPS II
80%
Draw or JäPS II
43%

Winning margin

Atlantis II wins by 2+
36%
JäPS II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlantis II 1+ goals
89%
Atlantis II 2+ goals
65%
Atlantis II 3+ goals
39%
JäPS II 1+ goals
74%
JäPS II 2+ goals
39%
JäPS II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlantis II (draw refunded)
72%
JäPS II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

JäPS II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis II attack 1.50 + JäPS II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

JäPS II attack 1.00 + Atlantis II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlantis II scores more
57%
level
20%
JäPS II scores more
22%

Atlantis II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlantis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlantis II vs JäPS II

Atlantis II beat JäPS II 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on April 11, 2024.

The match was played at Pallomylly-halli in Helsinki.