Jamshedpur 2–0 Goa: Result & Stats

Jamshedpur

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goa

5/1/2026

Indian Super League · Round 11JRD Tata Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jamshedpur43%

×Draw29%

Goa27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JamshedpurExpected goals in this matchGoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.90

Jamshedpur

1.21

Goa

0.90

Jamshedpur creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.22

creates per match

1.36

0.44

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Jamshedpur

1.22

Goa

1.36

allows per match

Jamshedpur

0.44

Goa

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.00on par

Goa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Goa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw

73%

Jamshedpur or Goa

71%

Draw or Goa

57%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+

19%

Goa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals

70%

Jamshedpur 2+ goals

34%

Jamshedpur 3+ goals

12%

Goa 1+ goals

59%

Goa 2+ goals

23%

Goa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)

61%

Goa (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Goa away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.22 + Goa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Goa attack 1.36 + Jamshedpur defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jamshedpur scores more

43%

level

29%

Goa scores more

27%

Jamshedpur at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jamshedpur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff