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Jamshedpur vs Goa — Indian Super League 2025

Jamshedpur
Jamshedpur
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Goa
Goa
Javi Siverio 68', 37'
L. Ćirković 34'
A. Chhetri 45+1'
2/2/2025Indian Super LeagueIndian Super League · Round 20JRD Tata Sports Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Jamshedpur33%
×Draw31%
Goa36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamshedpur
0.98
Goa
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jamshedpur
1.03
Goa
1.25

allows per match

Jamshedpur
0.83
Goa
0.93

finishing

Jamshedpur+0.57scores more
Goa-0.05on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamshedpur ↓

Goa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jamshedpur or draw
64%
Jamshedpur or Goa
69%
Draw or Goa
67%

Winning margin

Jamshedpur wins by 2+
12%
Goa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jamshedpur 1+ goals
62%
Jamshedpur 2+ goals
26%
Jamshedpur 3+ goals
8%
Goa 1+ goals
65%
Goa 2+ goals
28%
Goa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jamshedpur (draw refunded)
48%
Goa (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamshedpur at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.83 · 5 matches

Goa away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.93 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamshedpur attack 1.03 + Goa defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Goa attack 1.25 + Jamshedpur defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jamshedpur scores more
33%
level
31%
Goa scores more
36%

Goa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Goa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Javi SiverioJamshedpurJamshedpur · F
8.9

Match Events

34'
L. Ćirković↳ Javi Hernández
37'
Javi Siverio
45+1'
A. Chhetri↳ B. Fernandes
46'
S. Tavora← R. Borges
53'
M. Yasir← A. Chhetri
58'
M. Rahman← S. Das
59'
Aakash Sangwan
68'
Javi Siverio
70'
A. Sadiku← C. McHugh
81'
S. Doungel← I. Khan
85'
M. Nemil← B. Fernandes
85'
J. Gupta← A. Sangwan
89'
R. Das← M. Sanan
89'
R. Tachikawa← Javi Siverio
90+3'
Jay Gupta

Possession

38%Jamshedpur

Shots

19Jamshedpur

Pass accuracy

46%Jamshedpur

Statistics

JamshedpurGoa
Overview
38%Possession62%
19Total Shots12
3Corners10
10Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots12
10On Target5
5Off Target5
4Blocked2
12Inside Box7
7Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
216Total Passes352
136Accurate Passes256
63%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
5Offsides4

Match Recap: Jamshedpur vs Goa

Jamshedpur beat Goa 3-1 in Indian Super League on February 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Ćirković (34'), Javi Siverio (37', 68'), A. Chhetri (45+1').

Goa controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 19.

The match was played at JRD Tata Sports Complex Stadium in Jamshedpur.