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Jamono Fatick vs HLM — Ligue 1 2019

Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HLM
HLM
2/2/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade Massène Sène

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jamono Fatick35%
×Draw35%
HLM29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jamono Fatick
0.85
HLM
0.74

Jamono Fatick creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jamono Fatick
0.93
HLM
0.53

allows per match

Jamono Fatick
0.96
HLM
0.77

finishing

Jamono Fatick+0.00on par
HLM+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jamono Fatick ↓

HLM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Jamono Fatick or draw
71%
Jamono Fatick or HLM
65%
Draw or HLM
65%

Winning margin

Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
12%
HLM wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
57%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
21%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
5%
HLM 1+ goals
52%
HLM 2+ goals
17%
HLM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
55%
HLM (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jamono Fatick at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

HLM away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jamono Fatick attack 0.93 + HLM defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

HLM attack 0.53 + Jamono Fatick defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Jamono Fatick scores more
35%
level
35%
HLM scores more
29%

Jamono Fatick at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Jamono Fatick will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Jamono Fatick 0–0 HLM

Jamono Fatick and HLM drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Massène Sène in Fatick.