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HLM vs Jamono Fatick — Ligue 1 2019

HLM
HLM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jamono Fatick
Jamono Fatick
6/22/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 28Stade municipal des HLM

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

HLM36%
×Draw32%
Jamono Fatick32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HLM
0.97
Jamono Fatick
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

creates per match

HLM
0.73
Jamono Fatick
0.79

allows per match

HLM
1.00
Jamono Fatick
1.21

finishing

HLM+0.00on par
Jamono Fatick+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HLM ↓

Jamono Fatick →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

HLM or draw
68%
HLM or Jamono Fatick
68%
Draw or Jamono Fatick
64%

Winning margin

HLM wins by 2+
13%
Jamono Fatick wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HLM 1+ goals
62%
HLM 2+ goals
25%
HLM 3+ goals
7%
Jamono Fatick 1+ goals
59%
Jamono Fatick 2+ goals
23%
Jamono Fatick 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

HLM (draw refunded)
53%
Jamono Fatick (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HLM at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 30 matches

Jamono Fatick away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HLM attack 0.73 + Jamono Fatick defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Jamono Fatick attack 0.79 + HLM defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

HLM scores more
36%
level
32%
Jamono Fatick scores more
32%

HLM at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "HLM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HLM vs Jamono Fatick

HLM and Jamono Fatick drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade municipal des HLM in Dakar.