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JAK vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

JAK
JAK
FT
1 – 1
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
5/4/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 9Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

JAK50%
×Draw29%
Etoile Filante21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JAK
1.31
Etoile Filante
0.73

JAK creates 79% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 29 away

creates per match

JAK
1.32
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

JAK
0.94
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

JAK+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAK ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JAK or draw
79%
JAK or Etoile Filante
71%
Draw or Etoile Filante
50%

Winning margin

JAK wins by 2+
24%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JAK 1+ goals
73%
JAK 2+ goals
38%
JAK 3+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
52%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
17%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JAK (draw refunded)
71%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAK attack 1.32 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + JAK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JAK scores more
50%
level
29%
Etoile Filante scores more
21%

JAK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JAK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: JAK 1–1 Etoile Filante

JAK and Etoile Filante drew 1-1 in Championnat National on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Kétou in Kétou.