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Etoile Filante vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
FT
0 – 2
JAK
JAK
3/24/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 4Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Etoile Filante36%
×Draw30%
JAK34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etoile Filante
1.05
JAK
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 49 away

creates per match

Etoile Filante
0.73
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Etoile Filante
1.30
JAK
1.37

finishing

Etoile Filante+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etoile Filante ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Etoile Filante or draw
66%
Etoile Filante or JAK
70%
Draw or JAK
64%

Winning margin

Etoile Filante wins by 2+
14%
JAK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Etoile Filante 1+ goals
65%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
28%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
9%
JAK 1+ goals
64%
JAK 2+ goals
27%
JAK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
51%
JAK (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etoile Filante at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etoile Filante attack 0.73 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

JAK attack 0.73 + Etoile Filante defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Etoile Filante scores more
36%
level
30%
JAK scores more
34%

Etoile Filante at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Etoile Filante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Etoile Filante 0–2 JAK

JAK beat Etoile Filante 2-0 in Championnat National on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.