JAK 3–1 Dynamo Abomey: Result & Stats

JAK

FT

3 – 1

Dynamo Abomey

5/27/2023

Championnat National · Championship Round - 19Stade de Kétou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

JAK43%

×Draw29%

Dynamo Abomey28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JAKExpected goals in this matchDynamo Abomey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

JAK

1.23

Dynamo Abomey

0.93

JAK creates 32% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 108 away

1.32

creates per match

0.91

0.94

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

JAK

1.32

Dynamo Abomey

0.91

allows per match

JAK

0.94

Dynamo Abomey

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JAK+0.00on par

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JAK ↓

Dynamo Abomey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JAK or draw

72%

JAK or Dynamo Abomey

71%

Draw or Dynamo Abomey

57%

Winning margin

JAK wins by 2+

19%

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

JAK 1+ goals

71%

JAK 2+ goals

35%

JAK 3+ goals

13%

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals

61%

Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals

24%

Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

JAK (draw refunded)

61%

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JAK at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Dynamo Abomey away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.14 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JAK attack 1.32 + Dynamo Abomey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dynamo Abomey attack 0.91 + JAK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JAK scores more

43%

level

29%

Dynamo Abomey scores more

28%

JAK at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JAK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff