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Dynamo Abomey vs JAK — Championnat National 2019

Dynamo Abomey
Dynamo Abomey
FT
3 – 2
JAK
JAK
3/15/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 6Stade Muncipal de Ouidah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Dynamo Abomey52%
×Draw28%
JAK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Abomey
1.38
JAK
0.74

Dynamo Abomey creates 86% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dynamo Abomey
1.39
JAK
0.73

allows per match

Dynamo Abomey
0.75
JAK
1.37

finishing

Dynamo Abomey+0.00on par
JAK+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Abomey ↓

JAK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo Abomey or draw
80%
Dynamo Abomey or JAK
72%
Draw or JAK
48%

Winning margin

Dynamo Abomey wins by 2+
26%
JAK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dynamo Abomey 1+ goals
75%
Dynamo Abomey 2+ goals
40%
Dynamo Abomey 3+ goals
16%
JAK 1+ goals
52%
JAK 2+ goals
17%
JAK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Abomey (draw refunded)
72%
JAK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Abomey at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

JAK away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Abomey attack 1.39 + JAK defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

JAK attack 0.73 + Dynamo Abomey defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dynamo Abomey scores more
52%
level
28%
JAK scores more
20%

Dynamo Abomey at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dynamo Abomey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Dynamo Abomey 3–2 JAK

Dynamo Abomey beat JAK 3-2 in Championnat National on March 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Muncipal de Ouidah in Ouidah.