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Jaish vs Hottin — Premier League 2019

Jaish
Jaish
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hottin
Hottin
2/24/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Abbasiyyin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jaish41%
×Draw29%
Hottin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaish
1.21
Hottin
1.00

Jaish creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 82 away

creates per match

Jaish
1.46
Hottin
1.06

allows per match

Jaish
0.93
Hottin
0.95

finishing

Jaish+0.00on par
Hottin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaish ↓

Hottin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaish or draw
70%
Jaish or Hottin
71%
Draw or Hottin
59%

Winning margin

Jaish wins by 2+
18%
Hottin wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jaish 1+ goals
70%
Jaish 2+ goals
34%
Jaish 3+ goals
12%
Hottin 1+ goals
63%
Hottin 2+ goals
26%
Hottin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jaish (draw refunded)
57%
Hottin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaish at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

Hottin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaish attack 1.46 + Hottin defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hottin attack 1.06 + Jaish defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jaish scores more
41%
level
29%
Hottin scores more
30%

Jaish at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaish 2 – 1 Hottin

Jaish beat Hottin 2-1 in Premier League on February 24, 2026.

The match was played at Abbasiyyin Stadium in Damascus.