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Hottin vs Jaish — Premier League 2019

Hottin
Hottin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jaish
Jaish
5/21/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Idlib City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Hottin40%
×Draw29%
Jaish32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hottin
1.20
Jaish
1.04

Hottin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 69 away

creates per match

Hottin
1.33
Jaish
1.07

allows per match

Hottin
1.02
Jaish
1.06

finishing

Hottin+0.00on par
Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hottin ↓

Jaish →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hottin or draw
68%
Hottin or Jaish
71%
Draw or Jaish
60%

Winning margin

Hottin wins by 2+
17%
Jaish wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hottin 1+ goals
70%
Hottin 2+ goals
34%
Hottin 3+ goals
12%
Jaish 1+ goals
65%
Jaish 2+ goals
28%
Jaish 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hottin (draw refunded)
56%
Jaish (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hottin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Jaish away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hottin attack 1.33 + Jaish defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Jaish attack 1.07 + Hottin defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hottin scores more
40%
level
29%
Jaish scores more
32%

Hottin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hottin vs Jaish

Hottin and Jaish drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 21, 2025.

The match was played at Idlib City Stadium in Idlib.