Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Jahn Regensburg

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Fortuna Dusseldorf

E. Iyoha 45+1'

D. Kownacki 16'

K. Peterson 5'

10/19/2022

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundJahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jahn Regensburg21%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Dusseldorf58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchFortuna Dusseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

2.04

Jahn Regensburg

1.14

Fortuna Dusseldorf

2.04

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.57

creates per match

2.50

1.57

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg

0.57

Fortuna Dusseldorf

2.50

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.57

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg ↓

Fortuna Dusseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg or draw

42%

Jahn Regensburg or Fortuna Dusseldorf

79%

Draw or Fortuna Dusseldorf

79%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

8%

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

68%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

32%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

11%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

87%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

60%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

26%

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg attack 0.57 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 2.50 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jahn Regensburg scores more

21%

level

21%

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

58%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

K. Peterson

Fortuna Dusseldorf · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

K. Peterson↳ M. Karbownik

16'

D. Kownacki↳ M. Karbownik

45+1'

E. Iyoha↳ D. Kownacki

53'

R. Hennings← F. Klaus

56'

Jan Elvedi

63'

P. Owusu← A. Albers

64'

D. Vizinger← K. Caliskaner

64'

K. Faber← L. Günther

72'

M. Mansfeld← D. Kownacki

80'

B. Saller← M. Thalhammer

85'

N. Gavory← M. Karbownik

85'

S. Appelkamp← K. Peterson

85'

A. Bodzek← E. Iyoha

86'

M. Gouras← C. Makridis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JahnFortuna

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots10

5Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target8

8Off Target2

6Blocked0

10Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

499Total Passes368

402Accurate Passes276

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2

DFB Pokal: Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Jahn Regensburg 3-0 in DFB Pokal on October 19, 2022.

Goals: K. Peterson (5'), D. Kownacki (16'), E. Iyoha (45+1').

Jahn Regensburg controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Jahnstadion Regensburg in Regensburg.

Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DFB Pokal: Jahn Regensburg 0–3 Fortuna Dusseldorf