Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SSV Jahn Regensburg

M. Zimmermann 41'

3/15/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 26Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf52%

×Draw23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchSSV Jahn Regensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.22

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.86

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.22

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 52% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 102 away

1.78

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.78

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.16

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.28

SSV Jahn Regensburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.00on par

SSV Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

SSV Jahn Regensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

75%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or SSV Jahn Regensburg

77%

Draw or SSV Jahn Regensburg

48%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

29%

SSV Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

84%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

55%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

28%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

70%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

34%

SSV Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

68%

SSV Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

SSV Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.78 + SSV Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.86

SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

52%

level

23%

SSV Jahn Regensburg scores more

25%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Zimmermann

Fortuna Düsseldorf · M

8.2

Match Events

29'

Dawid Kownacki

41'

M. Zimmermann↳ T. Oberdorf

60'

D. Pejčinović← V. Vermeij

63'

S. Ernst← A. Suhonen

63'

E. Hottmann← A. Geipl

70'

B. Hein← T. Handwerker

72'

Louis Breunig

81'

D. Schmidt← S. Appelkamp

81'

J. Niemiec← E. Iyoha

85'

D. Galjen← N. Ganaus

85'

M. Meyer← C. Viet

90+3'

J. Boller← Í. Jóhannesson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaSSV

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots10

5Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots10

8On Target0

6Off Target8

3Blocked2

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

477Total Passes452

404Accurate Passes371

85%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2