Jahn Regensburg 1–1 Eintracht Braunschweig

Jahn Regensburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Eintracht Braunschweig

11/9/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 16Jahnstadion Regensburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Jahn Regensburg48%

×Draw24%

Eintracht Braunschweig27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn RegensburgExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

Jahn Regensburg

1.65

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.18

Jahn Regensburg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 87 away

1.31

creates per match

0.94

1.42

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.31

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.94

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg

1.42

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg or draw

73%

Jahn Regensburg or Eintracht Braunschweig

76%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

52%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+

25%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals

81%

Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals

49%

Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals

23%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

69%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)

64%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.42 · 103 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.31 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.65

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jahn Regensburg scores more

48%

level

24%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

27%

Jahn Regensburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff