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Eintracht Braunschweig vs Jahn Regensburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg
5/20/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig44%
×Draw25%
Jahn Regensburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.56
Jahn Regensburg
1.27

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 23% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 103 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
Jahn Regensburg
1.15

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
Jahn Regensburg
1.91

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
69%
Eintracht Braunschweig or Jahn Regensburg
75%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg
56%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
22%
Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
79%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
46%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
21%
Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
72%
Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
36%
Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
59%
Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.91 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.15 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
44%
level
25%
Jahn Regensburg scores more
31%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 1–2 Jahn Regensburg

Jahn Regensburg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.