Jahn Regensburg II 2–2 Eintracht Münchberg

Jahn Regensburg II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Eintracht Münchberg

P. Gebhard 90+2'

V. Kharabara 6'

J. Huttemann 56'

L. Kohler 45'

10/12/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 16Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II65%

×Draw18%

Eintracht Münchberg17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jahn Regensburg IIExpected goals in this matchEintracht Münchberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.19

Jahn Regensburg II

2.46

Eintracht Münchberg

1.19

Jahn Regensburg II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

2.22

creates per match

0.94

1.43

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II

2.22

Eintracht Münchberg

0.94

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II

1.43

Eintracht Münchberg

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Eintracht Münchberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw

83%

Jahn Regensburg II or Eintracht Münchberg

82%

Draw or Eintracht Münchberg

35%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+

43%

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals

91%

Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals

70%

Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals

44%

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals

70%

Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals

33%

Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)

79%

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Eintracht Münchberg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.46

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.94 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more

65%

level

18%

Eintracht Münchberg scores more

17%

Jahn Regensburg II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

V. Kharabara

45'

L. Kohler

56'

J. Huttemann

90+2'

P. Gebhard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff