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Eintracht Münchberg vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
L. Kohler 3'
J. Bauer 67'
P. Gebhard 58'
J. Seibold 23'
5/10/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg29%
×Draw23%
Jahn Regensburg II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.36
Jahn Regensburg II
1.83

Jahn Regensburg II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Jahn Regensburg II
1.48

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Jahn Regensburg II
1.91

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
52%
Eintracht Münchberg or Jahn Regensburg II
77%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
71%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
12%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
74%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
39%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
16%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
84%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
54%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
37%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
29%
level
23%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
48%

Jahn Regensburg II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Kohler
23'
J. Seibold
58'
P. Gebhard
67'
J. Bauer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Münchberg vs Jahn Regensburg II

Jahn Regensburg II beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 10, 2025.

Goals: L. Kohler (3'), J. Seibold (23'), P. Gebhard (58'), J. Bauer (67').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.