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Jahn Regensburg II vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coburg
Coburg
2/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 22Sportpark am Kaulbachweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jahn Regensburg II55%
×Draw20%
Coburg25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Regensburg II
2.29
Coburg
1.48

Jahn Regensburg II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jahn Regensburg II
2.22
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Jahn Regensburg II
1.43
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Regensburg II ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jahn Regensburg II or draw
75%
Jahn Regensburg II or Coburg
80%
Draw or Coburg
45%

Winning margin

Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
34%
Coburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
90%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
66%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
40%
Coburg 1+ goals
77%
Coburg 2+ goals
43%
Coburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
69%
Coburg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Regensburg II at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Regensburg II attack 2.22 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

Coburg attack 1.53 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jahn Regensburg II scores more
55%
level
20%
Coburg scores more
25%

Jahn Regensburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jahn Regensburg II vs Coburg

Jahn Regensburg II beat Coburg 2-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark am Kaulbachweg in Regensburg.