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Coburg vs Jahn Regensburg II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Coburg
Coburg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Jahn Regensburg II
Jahn Regensburg II
N. Hohn 84', 19'
A. Civelek 33'
F. Ziegler 77'
K. Onuigwe 45+6' (pen)
J. Seibold 20'
8/16/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 5Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Coburg31%
×Draw21%
Jahn Regensburg II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coburg
1.65
Jahn Regensburg II
2.06

Jahn Regensburg II creates 25% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

creates per match

Coburg
1.38
Jahn Regensburg II
1.48

allows per match

Coburg
2.65
Jahn Regensburg II
1.91

finishing

Coburg+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coburg ↓

Jahn Regensburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Coburg or draw
53%
Coburg or Jahn Regensburg II
79%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg II
69%

Winning margin

Coburg wins by 2+
15%
Jahn Regensburg II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Coburg 1+ goals
81%
Coburg 2+ goals
49%
Coburg 3+ goals
23%
Jahn Regensburg II 1+ goals
87%
Jahn Regensburg II 2+ goals
61%
Jahn Regensburg II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Coburg (draw refunded)
40%
Jahn Regensburg II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 34 matches

Jahn Regensburg II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.91 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coburg attack 1.38 + Jahn Regensburg II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jahn Regensburg II attack 1.48 + Coburg defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coburg scores more
31%
level
21%
Jahn Regensburg II scores more
47%

Jahn Regensburg II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Jahn Regensburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Hohn
20'
J. Seibold
33'
A. Civelek
45+6'
K. OnuigwePenalty
77'
F. Ziegler
84'
N. Hohn

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Coburg 3–3 Jahn Regensburg II

Coburg and Jahn Regensburg II drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 16, 2025.

Goals: N. Hohn (19', 84'), J. Seibold (20'), A. Civelek (33'), K. Onuigwe (45+6' pen), F. Ziegler (77').

The match was played at Dr.-Eugen-Stocke-Stadion in Coburg.