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Jahn Hiesfeld vs Hilden — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
14:00
Hilden
Hilden
3/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld34%
×Draw21%
Hilden45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.73
Hilden
2.02

Hilden creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 91 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
Hilden
2.19

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
Hilden
1.45

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
Hilden+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

Hilden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
55%
Jahn Hiesfeld or Hilden
79%
Draw or Hilden
66%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
17%
Hilden wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
82%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
52%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
25%
Hilden 1+ goals
87%
Hilden 2+ goals
60%
Hilden 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
43%
Hilden (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

Hilden away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + Hilden defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hilden attack 2.19 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
34%
level
21%
Hilden scores more
45%

Hilden at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld vs Hilden — Match Preview

Jahn Hiesfeld face Hilden on March 7, 2021 in this Oberliga - Niederrhein fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jahn Hiesfeld host Hilden at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.