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Hilden vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
1 – 0
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
10/10/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 8Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hilden60%
×Draw19%
Jahn Hiesfeld20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.36
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.31

Hilden creates 80% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
80%
Hilden or Jahn Hiesfeld
81%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
40%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
39%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
90%
Hilden 2+ goals
68%
Hilden 3+ goals
41%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
73%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
38%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
75%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.36

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hilden scores more
60%
level
19%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
20%

Hilden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Hilden 1–0 Jahn Hiesfeld

Hilden beat Jahn Hiesfeld 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.