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Jahn Hiesfeld vs FSV Duisburg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
CANC
18:30
FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
11/12/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Stadion am Freibad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jahn Hiesfeld58%
×Draw20%
FSV Duisburg22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.34
FSV Duisburg
1.39

Jahn Hiesfeld creates 68% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 42 away

creates per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
2.00
FSV Duisburg
0.93

allows per match

Jahn Hiesfeld
1.85
FSV Duisburg
2.69

finishing

Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par
FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jahn Hiesfeld ↓

FSV Duisburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Jahn Hiesfeld or draw
78%
Jahn Hiesfeld or FSV Duisburg
80%
Draw or FSV Duisburg
42%

Winning margin

Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
37%
FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
90%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
67%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
41%
FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
75%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
40%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
72%
FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jahn Hiesfeld at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 2.00 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.34

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
58%
level
20%
FSV Duisburg scores more
22%

Jahn Hiesfeld at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jahn Hiesfeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jahn Hiesfeld face FSV Duisburg (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Jahn Hiesfeld hosting FSV Duisburg. Match starts November 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Jahn Hiesfeld host FSV Duisburg at Stadion am Freibad.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.