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FSV Duisburg vs Jahn Hiesfeld — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

FSV Duisburg
FSV Duisburg
CANC
13:30
Jahn Hiesfeld
Jahn Hiesfeld
3/28/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FSV Duisburg41%
×Draw22%
Jahn Hiesfeld37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Duisburg
1.92
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

creates per match

FSV Duisburg
1.38
Jahn Hiesfeld
1.50

allows per match

FSV Duisburg
2.17
Jahn Hiesfeld
2.45

finishing

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par
Jahn Hiesfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Duisburg ↓

Jahn Hiesfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FSV Duisburg or draw
63%
FSV Duisburg or Jahn Hiesfeld
78%
Draw or Jahn Hiesfeld
59%

Winning margin

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+
22%
Jahn Hiesfeld wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals
85%
FSV Duisburg 2+ goals
57%
FSV Duisburg 3+ goals
30%
Jahn Hiesfeld 1+ goals
84%
Jahn Hiesfeld 2+ goals
54%
Jahn Hiesfeld 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)
52%
Jahn Hiesfeld (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Duisburg at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.17 · 40 matches

Jahn Hiesfeld away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Duisburg attack 1.38 + Jahn Hiesfeld defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.92

Jahn Hiesfeld attack 1.50 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FSV Duisburg scores more
41%
level
22%
Jahn Hiesfeld scores more
37%

FSV Duisburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FSV Duisburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FSV Duisburg host Jahn Hiesfeld

March 28, 2021: FSV Duisburg take on Jahn Hiesfeld in Oberliga - Niederrhein. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FSV Duisburg host Jahn Hiesfeld at Kunstrasenplatz FSV Duisburg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.