Jaguares 2–0 Quindio: Result & Stats | Primera B

Jaguares

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Quindio

A. Renteria 56', 10'

8/31/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jaguares54%

×Draw26%

Quindio20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchQuindio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Jaguares

1.48

Quindio

0.78

Jaguares creates 90% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 146 away

1.78

creates per match

0.95

0.61

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Jaguares

1.78

Quindio

0.95

allows per match

Jaguares

0.61

Quindio

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Quindio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

80%

Jaguares or Quindio

74%

Draw or Quindio

46%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

28%

Quindio wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

77%

Jaguares 2+ goals

43%

Jaguares 3+ goals

19%

Quindio 1+ goals

54%

Quindio 2+ goals

18%

Quindio 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

73%

Quindio (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.78 + Quindio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

Quindio attack 0.95 + Jaguares defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jaguares scores more

54%

level

26%

Quindio scores more

20%

Jaguares at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Renteria

34'

43'

46'

D. Padilla← J. Herrera

46'

J. Vallejo← J. Urresti

46'

J. Ibarguen← P. Ortiz

56'

A. Renteria

59'

H. Landazuri← F. Valencia

62'

B. Caicedo← W. Arango

64'

J. Mejia← A. Renteria

64'

76'

83'

85'

90+4'

Jaguares

Quindio

1

Jimenez

16

Roa

6

▼

2

14

8

4

▼

Ortiz

18

▼

Arango

11

Chala

15

▼

25

1

4

23

30

6

25

▼

Roa

14

Pino

15

▼

Maza

17

▼

Viveros

7

▼

Herrera

11

⚽2

▼

Renteria

Manager: A. Hernández

46'▲D. Padilla←▼J. Herrera

64'▲J. Mejia←▼A. Renteria

64'▲K. Lenis←▼J. Viveros

76'▲J. Andrade←▼J. Maza

85'▲J. Barrios←▼J. Roa

Jaguares substitutes

33Tovar3Bueno13Gutierrez31Barrios26Padilla20Andrade28Mejia60Lenis

46'▲J. Vallejo←▼J. Urresti

46'▲J. Ibarguen←▼P. Ortiz

59'▲H. Landazuri←▼F. Valencia

62'▲B. Caicedo←▼W. Arango

Quindio substitutes

12Pabon10Vallejo20Caicedo21Ramirez22Landazuri23Mosquera24Ibarguen26Hurtado29Satizabal

Primera B: Jaguares 2–0 Quindio

Jaguares beat Quindio 2-0 in Primera B on August 31, 2025.

Goals: A. Renteria (10', 56').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria in Monteria.

Jaguares vs Quindio — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Jaguares 2–0 Quindio