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Jaguares vs Quindio — Copa Colombia 2026

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quindio
Quindio
10/21/2020Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jaguares45%
×Draw28%
Quindio27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.31
Quindio
0.94

Jaguares creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.42
Quindio
0.87

allows per match

Jaguares
1.00
Quindio
1.20

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Quindio+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Quindio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
73%
Jaguares or Quindio
72%
Draw or Quindio
55%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
21%
Quindio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
73%
Jaguares 2+ goals
38%
Jaguares 3+ goals
14%
Quindio 1+ goals
61%
Quindio 2+ goals
24%
Quindio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
63%
Quindio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Quindio away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.42 + Quindio defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Quindio attack 0.87 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jaguares scores more
45%
level
28%
Quindio scores more
27%

Jaguares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Jaguares 0–1 Quindio

Quindio beat Jaguares 1-0 in Copa Colombia on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.