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Jaguares vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
3/24/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 13Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Jaguares43%
×Draw29%
Fortaleza FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.23
Fortaleza FC
0.92

Jaguares creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Fortaleza FC
0.87

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Fortaleza FC
1.40

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
72%
Jaguares or Fortaleza FC
71%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
57%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
19%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
71%
Jaguares 2+ goals
35%
Jaguares 3+ goals
13%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
60%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
23%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
61%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fortaleza FC attack 0.87 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaguares scores more
43%
level
29%
Fortaleza FC scores more
28%

Jaguares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Jaguares 0–1 Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera A on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.