Fortaleza FC 3–1 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Fortaleza FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Jaguares

10/7/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Fortaleza FC52%

×Draw27%

Jaguares21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza FCExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.81

Fortaleza FC

1.43

Jaguares

0.81

Fortaleza FC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 138 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

0.96

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Fortaleza FC

1.17

Jaguares

0.67

allows per match

Fortaleza FC

0.96

Jaguares

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza FC ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fortaleza FC or draw

79%

Fortaleza FC or Jaguares

73%

Draw or Jaguares

48%

Winning margin

Fortaleza FC wins by 2+

26%

Jaguares wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortaleza FC 1+ goals

76%

Fortaleza FC 2+ goals

42%

Fortaleza FC 3+ goals

17%

Jaguares 1+ goals

56%

Jaguares 2+ goals

19%

Jaguares 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)

71%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.69 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza FC attack 1.17 + Jaguares defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Fortaleza FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fortaleza FC scores more

52%

level

27%

Jaguares scores more

21%

Fortaleza FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fortaleza FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff