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Jaguares vs Deportivo Pasto — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
10/20/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 18Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares43%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Pasto27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.19
Deportivo Pasto
0.88

Jaguares creates 35% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 172 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Deportivo Pasto
0.79

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Deportivo Pasto
1.32

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportivo Pasto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
73%
Jaguares or Deportivo Pasto
70%
Draw or Deportivo Pasto
57%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
70%
Jaguares 2+ goals
33%
Jaguares 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.32 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Deportivo Pasto attack 0.79 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jaguares scores more
43%
level
30%
Deportivo Pasto scores more
27%

Jaguares at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jaguares 1 – 0 Deportivo Pasto

Jaguares beat Deportivo Pasto 1-0 in Primera A on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería in Montería.