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Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
9/9/2023Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 10Estadio Departamental Libertad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Deportivo Pasto54%
×Draw26%
Jaguares19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Pasto
1.48
Jaguares
0.76

Deportivo Pasto creates 95% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 138 away

creates per match

Deportivo Pasto
1.26
Jaguares
0.67

allows per match

Deportivo Pasto
0.85
Jaguares
1.69

finishing

Deportivo Pasto+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Pasto ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Pasto or draw
81%
Deportivo Pasto or Jaguares
74%
Draw or Jaguares
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+
28%
Jaguares wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals
19%
Jaguares 1+ goals
53%
Jaguares 2+ goals
18%
Jaguares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)
74%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Pasto at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.85 · 173 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.69 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.26 + Jaguares defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jaguares attack 0.67 + Deportivo Pasto defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Pasto scores more
54%
level
26%
Jaguares scores more
19%

Deportivo Pasto at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Pasto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares

Deportivo Pasto beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera A on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Departamental Libertad in San Juan de Pasto.