Jaguares 0–1 Deportivo Pasto: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Pasto

M. Vásquez 90'

7/16/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Jaguares38%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Pasto34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Pasto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.09

Jaguares

1.17

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.24

creates per match

1.24

0.95

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Jaguares

1.24

Deportivo Pasto

1.24

allows per match

Jaguares

0.95

Deportivo Pasto

1.09

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Jaguares+0.14scores more

Deportivo Pasto+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Deportivo Pasto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

66%

Jaguares or Deportivo Pasto

71%

Draw or Deportivo Pasto

62%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Pasto wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

69%

Jaguares 2+ goals

33%

Jaguares 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Pasto 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Pasto 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Pasto 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

53%

Deportivo Pasto (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Deportivo Pasto away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.24 + Deportivo Pasto defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Pasto attack 1.24 + Jaguares defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jaguares scores more

38%

level

29%

Deportivo Pasto scores more

34%

Jaguares at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

M. Vásquez

Deportivo Pasto · M

8.9

Match Events

37'

Cristian Tovar

45+1'

Victor Arboleda

46'

D. Rodríguez← N. Tapia

67'

J. Rodríguez← J. Viveros

68'

J. Quintero← O. Duarte

68'

A. Estacio← L. Escalante

76'

J. Mancilla← E. Villalobos

76'

C. Ayala← F. Ospitaleche

80'

82'

87'

90+1'

90'

M. Vásquez↳ A. Estacio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots16

4Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots16

0On Target9

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

1Inside Box7

9Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

458Total Passes297

389Accurate Passes242

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

8Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0