Jaguares 3–0 Barranquilla: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barranquilla

7/29/2021

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Jaguares63%

×Draw22%

Barranquilla15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchBarranquilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.75

Jaguares

1.83

Barranquilla

0.75

Jaguares creates 144% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Jaguares

1.42

Barranquilla

0.50

allows per match

Jaguares

1.00

Barranquilla

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Barranquilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

85%

Jaguares or Barranquilla

78%

Draw or Barranquilla

37%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

37%

Barranquilla wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

84%

Jaguares 2+ goals

54%

Jaguares 3+ goals

28%

Barranquilla 1+ goals

53%

Barranquilla 2+ goals

17%

Barranquilla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

81%

Barranquilla (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.42 + Barranquilla defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.83

Barranquilla attack 0.50 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jaguares scores more

63%

level

22%

Barranquilla scores more

15%

Jaguares at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff