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Barranquilla vs Jaguares — Copa Colombia 2026

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
8/6/2021Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Barranquilla46%
×Draw28%
Jaguares26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.33
Jaguares
0.92

Barranquilla creates 45% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 19 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.25
Jaguares
0.84

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.00
Jaguares
1.42

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
74%
Barranquilla or Jaguares
72%
Draw or Jaguares
54%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
22%
Jaguares wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
74%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
38%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
15%
Jaguares 1+ goals
60%
Jaguares 2+ goals
23%
Jaguares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
64%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.25 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Jaguares attack 0.84 + Barranquilla defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barranquilla scores more
46%
level
28%
Jaguares scores more
26%

Barranquilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barranquilla vs Jaguares

Barranquilla beat Jaguares 2-0 in Copa Colombia on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.