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Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar — Primera A 2018

Jaguares
Jaguares
Preview
21:00
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
9/27/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Jaraguay
Big match
46%
Jaguares
model favours
46%29%25%
1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Jaguares46%
×Draw29%
Alianza Valledupar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jaguares
1.28
Alianza Valledupar
0.85

Jaguares creates 51% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 167 away

creates per match

Jaguares
1.06
Alianza Valledupar
0.75

allows per match

Jaguares
0.96
Alianza Valledupar
1.50

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par
Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Alianza Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw
75%
Jaguares or Alianza Valledupar
71%
Draw or Alianza Valledupar
54%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+
21%
Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals
72%
Jaguares 2+ goals
37%
Jaguares 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
57%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
21%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)
65%
Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.96 · 139 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 167 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.06 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Jaguares defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jaguares scores more
46%
level
29%
Alianza Valledupar scores more
25%

Jaguares at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Jaguares outscore their xG (0.7 vs 0.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Jaguares
Defensively solid
Alianza Valledupar
Balanced
53%Possession49%
80%Pass accuracy79%
13.5Shots12.1
0.36xGBiggest gap0.98
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
JaguaresAlianza Valledupar

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Jaguares
4
Draws
4
Alianza Valledupar
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 50%
0–10–01–20–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Jaguares
LWDLW
Valledupar
WLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jaguares host Alianza Valledupar

September 27, 2026: Jaguares take on Alianza Valledupar in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jaguares host Alianza Valledupar at Estadio Jaraguay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.