Jaguares 0–0 Alianza Valledupar: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Valledupar

9/22/2023

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio de Fútbol Jaraguay de Montería

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jaguares45%

×Draw30%

Alianza Valledupar25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchAlianza Valledupar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.82

Jaguares

1.22

Alianza Valledupar

0.82

Jaguares creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 48 away

1.00

creates per match

0.75

0.89

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Jaguares

1.00

Alianza Valledupar

0.75

allows per match

Jaguares

0.89

Alianza Valledupar

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Alianza Valledupar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

75%

Jaguares or Alianza Valledupar

70%

Draw or Alianza Valledupar

55%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

70%

Jaguares 2+ goals

34%

Jaguares 3+ goals

12%

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

56%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

20%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

65%

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Alianza Valledupar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.00 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Alianza Valledupar attack 0.75 + Jaguares defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jaguares scores more

45%

level

30%

Alianza Valledupar scores more

25%

Jaguares at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Viveros

Jaguares · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

18'

25'

25'

43'

S. Orozco← M. Gil

46'

F. Mercado← Y. Arboleda

46'

S. Acosta← D. Rodas

46'

D. Valdés← R. Colpa

55'

F. Espinal← J. Pérez

59'

J. Molina← J. Alegría

66'

68'

68'

69'

69'

81'

A. Morales← J. Castillo

90+1'

Pedro Franco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JaguaresAlianza

Overview

69%Possession31%

19Total Shots6

9Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots6

4On Target1

9Off Target3

6Blocked2

9Inside Box3

10Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

497Total Passes227

421Accurate Passes150

85%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1