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Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares — Primera A 2025

Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jaguares
Jaguares
Y. Rosales 9'
3/19/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alianza Valledupar59%
×Draw24%
Jaguares17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Valledupar
1.70
Jaguares
0.78

Alianza Valledupar creates 118% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar
1.28
Jaguares
0.71

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar
0.85
Jaguares
2.12

finishing

Alianza Valledupar+0.00on par
Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw
83%
Alianza Valledupar or Jaguares
76%
Draw or Jaguares
41%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+
33%
Jaguares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals
82%
Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals
51%
Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals
24%
Jaguares 1+ goals
54%
Jaguares 2+ goals
18%
Jaguares 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)
78%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.28 + Jaguares defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Jaguares attack 0.71 + Alianza Valledupar defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more
59%
level
24%
Jaguares scores more
17%

Alianza Valledupar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Y. RosalesAlianza ValleduparAlianza Valledupar · D
7.6

Match Events

9'
Y. Rosales↳ J. Lasso
19'
Carlos Ordóñez
21'
Johan Hinestroza
29'
Fabián Cantillo
46'
C. Esparragoza← F. Cantillo
55'
J. Viveros← D. Rodriguez Urango
58'
Carlos Esparragoza
61'
L. Jimenez← D. Lopez
62'
K. Moreno← Y. Londono
62'
W. Fernandez← J. Figueroa
78'
J. E. Perez Balcazar← F. Pardo
78'
J. Osorio← J. Castillo
78'
R. R. Colpa Bolano← J. Hinestroza
78'
S. Cubides← Jopito
90+2'
Jhildrey Lasso

Possession

36%Alianza

Shots

8Alianza

Pass accuracy

48%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaJaguares
Overview
36%Possession64%
8Total Shots14
0.57Expected Goals (xG)0.36
2Corners6
17Fouls8
Shots
8Total Shots14
4On Target2
1Off Target5
3Blocked7
4Inside Box4
4Outside Box10
Passing
36%Possession64%
308Total Passes542
250Accurate Passes478
81%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.20Goals Prevented0.20
Discipline
17Fouls8
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Alianza Valledupar vs Jaguares

Alianza Valledupar beat Jaguares 1-0 in Primera A on March 19, 2026.

Goals: Y. Rosales (9').

Jaguares controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar.