Jagiellonia 2–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lechia Gdansk

T. Přikryl 78'

J. Puljić 9' (pen)

K. Fila 61'

5/16/2021

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Jagiellonia48%

×Draw23%

Lechia Gdansk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.44

Jagiellonia

1.87

Lechia Gdansk

1.44

Jagiellonia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

1.93

creates per match

1.48

1.39

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.93

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.39

Lechia Gdansk

1.81

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.13scores more

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

70%

Jagiellonia or Lechia Gdansk

77%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

52%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

26%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

85%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

56%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

29%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

76%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

42%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

61%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.93 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.87

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Jagiellonia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

48%

level

23%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

30%

Jagiellonia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. PuljićPenalty

11'

21'

37'

46'

46'

M. Makuszewski← K. Wrzesiński

58'

Joseph Ceesay

61'

Jesús Imaz← J. Orpik

61'

K. Fila↳ T. Makowski

68'

Przemysław Mystkowski

72'

F. Černych← J. Puljić

75'

A. Borysiuk← B. Augustyn

78'

T. Přikryl↳ Jesús Imaz

80'

M. Żukowski← J. Ceesay

80'

K. Tobers← T. Makowski

81'

Maciej Makuszewski

85'

M. Musolitin← K. Fila

85'

E. Vikri← Ž. Udovičić

88'

J. Kałuziński← M. Gajos

90'

Bartosz Kwiecień

90'

Flávio Paixão

Possession

Shots

Statistics

JagielloniaLechia

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots10

6Corners8

14Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots10

7On Target6

4Off Target4

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides6

Match Recap: Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk

Jagiellonia beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on May 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Puljić (9' pen), K. Fila (61'), T. Přikryl (78').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białystok.

Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Jagiellonia vs Lechia Gdansk