Jagiellonia U19 1–2 Arka Gdynia U19: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Arka Gdynia U19

5/20/2023

Central Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jagiellonia U1949%

×Draw21%

Arka Gdynia U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jagiellonia U19Expected goals in this matchArka Gdynia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.64

Jagiellonia U19

2.13

Arka Gdynia U19

1.64

Jagiellonia U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

2.21

creates per match

1.46

1.81

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Jagiellonia U19

2.21

Arka Gdynia U19

1.46

allows per match

Jagiellonia U19

1.81

Arka Gdynia U19

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U19 ↓

Arka Gdynia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U19 or draw

70%

Jagiellonia U19 or Arka Gdynia U19

79%

Draw or Arka Gdynia U19

51%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+

29%

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals

88%

Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals

63%

Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals

35%

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals

81%

Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals

49%

Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U19 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

Arka Gdynia U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U19 attack 2.21 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.13

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 1.46 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jagiellonia U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more

30%

Jagiellonia U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Jagiellonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff