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Arka Gdynia U19 vs Jagiellonia U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Arka Gdynia U19
Arka Gdynia U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jagiellonia U19
Jagiellonia U19
4/26/2025Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Arka Gdynia U1946%
×Draw22%
Jagiellonia U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia U19
2.00
Jagiellonia U19
1.66

Arka Gdynia U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia U19
2.00
Jagiellonia U19
1.64

allows per match

Arka Gdynia U19
1.68
Jagiellonia U19
2.00

finishing

Arka Gdynia U19+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia U19 ↓

Jagiellonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia U19 or draw
67%
Arka Gdynia U19 or Jagiellonia U19
78%
Draw or Jagiellonia U19
54%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia U19 wins by 2+
26%
Jagiellonia U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia U19 1+ goals
86%
Arka Gdynia U19 2+ goals
59%
Arka Gdynia U19 3+ goals
32%
Jagiellonia U19 1+ goals
81%
Jagiellonia U19 2+ goals
49%
Jagiellonia U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Jagiellonia U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

Jagiellonia U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.00 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia U19 attack 2.00 + Jagiellonia U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jagiellonia U19 attack 1.64 + Arka Gdynia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arka Gdynia U19 scores more
46%
level
22%
Jagiellonia U19 scores more
33%

Arka Gdynia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arka Gdynia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arka Gdynia U19 vs Jagiellonia U19

Jagiellonia U19 beat Arka Gdynia U19 2-1 in Central Youth League on April 26, 2025.