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Jagiellonia U18 vs Gwarek Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
3/5/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jagiellonia U1865%
×Draw17%
Gwarek Zabrze U1818%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jagiellonia U18
2.81
Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.44

Jagiellonia U18 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jagiellonia U18
2.79
Gwarek Zabrze U18
0.90

allows per match

Jagiellonia U18
1.97
Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.83

finishing

Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par
Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia U18 ↓

Gwarek Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Jagiellonia U18 or draw
82%
Jagiellonia U18 or Gwarek Zabrze U18
83%
Draw or Gwarek Zabrze U18
35%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
45%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
94%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
76%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
52%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
76%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
42%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
78%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia U18 at home — creates 2.79, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

Gwarek Zabrze U18 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia U18 attack 2.79 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.81

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 0.90 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jagiellonia U18 scores more
65%
level
17%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
18%

Jagiellonia U18 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jagiellonia U18 vs Gwarek Zabrze U18

Jagiellonia U18 beat Gwarek Zabrze U18 5-1 in Central Youth League on March 5, 2022.