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Gwarek Zabrze U18 vs Jagiellonia U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
FT
2 – 2
Jagiellonia U18
Jagiellonia U18
8/29/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gwarek Zabrze U1828%
×Draw21%
Jagiellonia U1851%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.55
Jagiellonia U18
2.15

Jagiellonia U18 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.37
Jagiellonia U18
1.78

allows per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.53
Jagiellonia U18
1.73

finishing

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Jagiellonia U18+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Zabrze U18 ↓

Jagiellonia U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or draw
49%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 or Jagiellonia U18
79%
Draw or Jagiellonia U18
72%

Winning margin

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
13%
Jagiellonia U18 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
79%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
46%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
20%
Jagiellonia U18 1+ goals
88%
Jagiellonia U18 2+ goals
63%
Jagiellonia U18 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
35%
Jagiellonia U18 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.53 · 30 matches

Jagiellonia U18 away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 1.37 + Jagiellonia U18 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Jagiellonia U18 attack 1.78 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
28%
level
21%
Jagiellonia U18 scores more
51%

Jagiellonia U18 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jagiellonia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Zabrze U18 vs Jagiellonia U18

Gwarek Zabrze U18 and Jagiellonia U18 drew 2-2 in Central Youth League on August 29, 2021.