Jägersburg 1–2 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Jägersburg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

5/13/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 10Alois-Omlor-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jägersburg45%

×Draw23%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JägersburgExpected goals in this matchAlemannia Waldalgesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Jägersburg

1.83

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.50

Jägersburg creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Jägersburg

2.50

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

2.00

allows per match

Jägersburg

1.00

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jägersburg+0.00on par

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jägersburg ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Jägersburg or draw

68%

Jägersburg or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

77%

Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

55%

Winning margin

Jägersburg wins by 2+

25%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jägersburg 1+ goals

84%

Jägersburg 2+ goals

54%

Jägersburg 3+ goals

28%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

78%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

44%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jägersburg (draw refunded)

59%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jägersburg at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jägersburg attack 2.50 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.83

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.00 + Jägersburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jägersburg scores more

45%

level

23%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

32%

Jägersburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff