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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
2 – 2
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
4/1/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 4Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim51%
×Draw21%
Jägersburg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.08
Jägersburg
1.50

Alemannia Waldalgesheim creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.17
Jägersburg
2.00

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.00
Jägersburg
2.00

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
72%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Jägersburg
79%
Draw or Jägersburg
49%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
30%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
87%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
61%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
34%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
78%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
44%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
65%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 2.17 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Jägersburg attack 2.00 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
51%
level
21%
Jägersburg scores more
28%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2–2 Jägersburg

Alemannia Waldalgesheim and Jägersburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.