Jägersburg 7–0 Ahrweiler BC: Result & Stats

Jägersburg

FT

7 – 0

Ahrweiler BC

5/27/2023

Oberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 12Alois-Omlor-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jägersburg80%

×Draw12%

Ahrweiler BC8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JägersburgExpected goals in this matchAhrweiler BC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.17

0.92

Jägersburg

3.17

Ahrweiler BC

0.92

Jägersburg creates 245% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.50

creates per match

0.83

1.00

allows per match

3.83

creates per match

Jägersburg

2.50

Ahrweiler BC

0.83

allows per match

Jägersburg

1.00

Ahrweiler BC

3.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jägersburg+0.00on par

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jägersburg ↓

Ahrweiler BC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Jägersburg or draw

92%

Jägersburg or Ahrweiler BC

88%

Draw or Ahrweiler BC

20%

Winning margin

Jägersburg wins by 2+

62%

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Jägersburg 1+ goals

96%

Jägersburg 2+ goals

82%

Jägersburg 3+ goals

60%

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals

60%

Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals

23%

Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jägersburg (draw refunded)

91%

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jägersburg at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jägersburg attack 2.50 + Ahrweiler BC defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.17

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.83 + Jägersburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Jägersburg scores more

80%

level

12%

Ahrweiler BC scores more

8%

Jägersburg at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff