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Ahrweiler BC vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
2 – 2
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
4/15/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 6Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahrweiler BC31%
×Draw22%
Jägersburg48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.58
Jägersburg
2.00

Jägersburg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.17
Jägersburg
2.00

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.00
Jägersburg
2.00

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
52%
Ahrweiler BC or Jägersburg
78%
Draw or Jägersburg
69%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
15%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
79%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
47%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
21%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
86%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
59%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
39%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.17 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jägersburg attack 2.00 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
31%
level
22%
Jägersburg scores more
48%

Jägersburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs Jägersburg

Ahrweiler BC and Jägersburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.