Jadran Poreč 1–0 Jadran LP: Result & Stats

Jadran Poreč

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jadran LP

M. Ivetic 53'

3/25/2023

Second NL · Round 20Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč31%

×Draw26%

Jadran LP43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran PorečExpected goals in this matchJadran LP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.47

Jadran Poreč

1.21

Jadran LP

1.47

Jadran LP creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

1.49

creates per match

1.38

1.56

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Jadran Poreč

1.49

Jadran LP

1.38

allows per match

Jadran Poreč

1.56

Jadran LP

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Jadran LP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw

57%

Jadran Poreč or Jadran LP

74%

Draw or Jadran LP

69%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

13%

Jadran LP wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

70%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

34%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

12%

Jadran LP 1+ goals

77%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

43%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

42%

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.21

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more

31%

level

26%

Jadran LP scores more

43%

Jadran LP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

M. Ivetic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff