Jadran LP 3–0 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Jadran LP

FT

3 – 0

Jadran Poreč

3/23/2024

Second NL · Round 20Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran LP69%

×Draw17%

Jadran Poreč14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jadran LPExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.02

Jadran LP

2.46

Jadran Poreč

1.02

Jadran LP creates 141% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

2.18

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Jadran LP

2.18

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Jadran LP

1.03

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw

86%

Jadran LP or Jadran Poreč

83%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

31%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+

46%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals

91%

Jadran LP 2+ goals

70%

Jadran LP 3+ goals

44%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

64%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

27%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)

83%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.46

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jadran LP scores more

69%

level

17%

Jadran Poreč scores more

14%

Jadran LP at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff