Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jadran Poreč vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
L. Bosnjak 82'
10/19/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 9Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč46%
×Draw24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.65
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.29

Jadran Poreč creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.02

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.80

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
70%
Jadran Poreč or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
76%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
54%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
81%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
49%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
23%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
72%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
37%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
60%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.80 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.02 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
46%
level
24%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
30%

Jadran Poreč at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'
L. Bosnjak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Jadran Poreč 1-0 in Second NL on October 19, 2024.

Goals: L. Bosnjak (82').

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.