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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
M. Ivetic 58'
4/18/2025Second NLSecond NL · Round 24Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac56%
×Draw22%
Jadran Poreč22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.98
Jadran Poreč
1.16

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 71% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.22
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.31
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
78%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Jadran Poreč
78%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
44%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
33%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
86%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
59%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
31%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
69%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
32%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
72%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.22 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.98

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
56%
level
22%
Jadran Poreč scores more
22%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
M. Ivetic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Jadran Poreč

Jadran Poreč beat Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1-0 in Second NL on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivetic (58').

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.