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Jadran Poreč vs Grobničan Čavle — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
D. Mendrila 20'
11/16/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 13Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jadran Poreč48%
×Draw24%
Grobničan Čavle29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.71
Grobničan Čavle
1.27

Jadran Poreč creates 35% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Grobničan Čavle
0.98

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
71%
Jadran Poreč or Grobničan Čavle
76%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
52%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
25%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
82%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
51%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
24%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
72%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
36%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
63%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Grobničan Čavle attack 0.98 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
48%
level
24%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
29%

Jadran Poreč at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
D. Mendrila

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Grobničan Čavle

Grobničan Čavle beat Jadran Poreč 1-0 in Second NL on November 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Mendrila (20').

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.