Grobničan Čavle 4–1 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Grobničan Čavle

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jadran Poreč

D. Pilcic 82' (pen), 62', 55' (pen)

B. Rexhepi 58'

I. Lepinjica 40'

5/19/2023

Second NL · Round 28Stadion Adelija Haramija Beba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grobničan Čavle60%

×Draw20%

Jadran Poreč20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grobničan ČavleExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.24

Grobničan Čavle

2.25

Jadran Poreč

1.24

Grobničan Čavle creates 81% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.48

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.78

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Grobničan Čavle

1.48

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grobničan Čavle ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grobničan Čavle or draw

80%

Grobničan Čavle or Jadran Poreč

80%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

40%

Winning margin

Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+

38%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals

89%

Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals

65%

Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals

39%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

71%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

35%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)

75%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grobničan Čavle at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.48 · 60 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.78 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.25

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grobničan Čavle scores more

60%

level

20%

Jadran Poreč scores more

20%

Grobničan Čavle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

I. Lepinjica

55'

D. PilcicPenalty

58'

B. Rexhepi

62'

D. Pilcic

82'

D. PilcicPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff